By Joey Jones, Deputy Political Editor
Getting a directly elected MP into Westminster for the first time, as UKIP surely will in the form of Douglas Carswell in Clacton-on-Sea, ranks as a sizeable tremor on the party's earthquake scale.
However, it lacks the one element that sows terror in the hearts of UKIP's political opponents - shock value.
The Carswell defection in the dog days of summer silly season really did have David Cameron reaching for the smelling salts, but the fact the former Tory MP will be returned on a UKIP ticket has been priced in from the moment the first opinion pollsters did the rounds of Clacton, if not before.
A Carswell triumph will be a moment of high symbolism nonetheless.
Having an MP in the Commons offers UKIP a valuable platform, and reinforces their confidence that the walls of the Palace of Westminster will eventually crumble under a relentless UKIP siege.
Before Nigel Farage and his troops get too far ahead of themselves, it should be remembered that the party's main achievement in a general election will be a negative one - putting a spanner in other politicians' hopes of comfortable re-election - while they can hope for only a handful of seats at best.
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Gallery: Heywood and Clacton By-Elections
List of candidates for the Heywood and Middleton by-election
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List of candidates for the Clacton by-election
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Watch a by-election special on Sky News from 10pm on Thursday
Nevertheless, the extent to which the political dynamic has shifted can be measured by the fact that few Westminster politicians now have the temerity to describe a vote for UKIP as a "protest vote".
There is instead a recognition that the disenchantment with mainstream politics on which Mr Farage feeds has to be grappled with as (at the very least) a semi-permanent phenomenon.
In Thursday's other by-election in Heywood and Middleton, UKIP is set to put the frighteners on Labour without making a shattering breakthrough.
If the party polls close to 30%, that will be unsettling for Ed Miliband, who is coming under significant pressure following a lacklustre conference season.
The focus at these electoral set pieces will first and foremost be on the big winner - UKIP.
But as MPs return to Westminster after conference season the heat is likely to be on an opposition that seems able to do little more than tread water.
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